A new Redfin analysis says mid-December brings the best deals in Detroit, but that's Wayne County. In Oakland County, the data point earlier, to right about now.
By BIG Real Estate · October 28, 2026
On Oct. 27, Redfin published an analysis of when buyers in each large metro area typically get the biggest discounts. The headline finding for our region was that mid-December is the "dealmaking sweet spot" in Detroit. That makes a neat story about holiday house hunting. For Oakland County buyers, though, it's the wrong number to plan around.
Redfin reports metro Detroit as two separate markets. In the same table, the "Warren, MI" market, which is the federal metro division that contains Oakland and Macomb counties, has its best deals in late October. Oakland County's own listing and sales data tell a similar story. Price cuts are most common from August through October. By December, the number of new listings has usually fallen by half or more, and so has much of the choice.
Below is what the numbers show, what they don't, and how to use them if you're shopping this fall or winter.
Two "Detroits" in the same report
Redfin's report was prepared with the research firm Home Economics. It identifies the point in the year when discounts off a home's original asking price, whether from price drops or negotiation, typically reach their seasonal peak. Redfin also lists when each metro typically has the most new listings and the most fresh inventory.
Redfin's two metro-Detroit markets:
- Detroit, MI: most new listings in early August, most fresh inventory in early September, best deals in mid-December.
- Warren, MI: most new listings in mid-May, most fresh inventory in late August, best deals in late October.
Redfin's article doesn't define its metro boundaries. In its reports, "Detroit" corresponds to the Wayne County metro division and "Warren" to the Warren–Troy–Farmington Hills division, which covers Oakland, Macomb, Livingston, Lapeer and St. Clair counties. Troy, Royal Oak, Birmingham, Rochester Hills, Southfield and the rest of southeast Oakland County fall in the Warren market, not the Detroit one.
A second national study points the same way. Realtor.com's 2026 "best time to buy" analysis, reported by RISMedia on Sept. 14, named Oct. 4–10 as the best week for buyers in the Detroit metro. That study looked at listing prices, inventory and buyer demand, not mortgage rates. The two studies measure different things and use different geography, but both put the best timing for the broader region in the fall rather than at the holidays.
Neither study describes a guarantee. They show when discounts have typically peaked across past years, and Redfin's analysis was originally completed in April.
What Oakland County's own numbers show
We checked the seasonal pattern against county-level data: monthly listing figures from Realtor.com (published on FRED) and closed-sale figures from Realcomp, the region's MLS.
Price cuts peak in late summer and fall. From 2017 through 2025, the share of Oakland County's active listings with a price reduction during the month averaged:
- 38% to 40% from August through October
- 33% in November
- about 21% to 23% in December and January
A drop in December doesn't mean sellers suddenly hold firm. It reflects which listings are left. Many owners who were going to cut did so in the fall. Others take their homes off the market for the holidays and relist in spring.
Choice shrinks fast. Over the last four years, Oakland County's new listings fell 42% to 59% from September to December (2025: 1,650 to 676). Active listings fell roughly 10% to 20% on Realtor.com's count. Realcomp's broader inventory measure fell 17% to 32%.
Competition falls too. Contracts written (pending sales) in Oakland County fell 30% to 44% from September to December in each of 2022 through 2025, according to Realcomp's lead sheets. Last year they fell from 1,318 to 807.
Homes that are left sit longer. Realtor.com's median days on market in Oakland County rose from 35–37 days in September to 45–51 in December in each of the last four years, and to 54–59 in January in the last two.
Closed prices dip, but read that carefully. Oakland County's median sale price was lower in December than in September in each of the last four years, by between 0.8% (2024) and 10.4% (2023). Some of that is real negotiating room. Much of it is the mix of homes: larger, more expensive homes tend to sell in spring and summer. A lower median doesn't mean the same house costs 4% less in December.
Put together, the seasonal pattern in Oakland County looks like this:
- August–October: the most choice and the most price cuts.
- November–December: fewer buyers, more stale listings and more motivated sellers, but much less to choose from.
That fits Redfin's "late October" estimate for the Warren market better than the "mid-December" headline.
This fall is already a buyer-leaning market
The seasonal pattern sits on top of a market that has already shifted. In September 2026:
- Active listings and price cuts. Realtor.com counted 3,578 active listings in Oakland County, up 24% from a year earlier. 1,504 of them had a price cut during the month, about 42%. That's the highest September share since the series began in 2016, except for 2022's 44.3%.
- Buyer-seller balance. Redfin estimated that the Warren market had 47.1% more sellers than buyers, well past the 10% gap Redfin uses to define a buyer's market. That figure is a modeled estimate, not a count.
- Closed sales. Realcomp reported that Oakland County closed sales fell 4.3% year over year, inventory reached a five-year September high, and the median sale price still rose 2.3% to $383,500.
So buyers have leverage now, before the holiday slowdown starts. We covered what's driving inventory in our September market report and how sellers are responding in our fall pricing guide.
The bigger lever is probably the rate, not the calendar
Seasonal discounts are real, but they're modest compared with the cost of borrowing. Here's an illustration using Oakland County's September median price of $383,500, with 20% down on a 30-year fixed loan at Freddie Mac's Oct. 22 average rate of 7.32%:
- Base case: principal and interest come to about $2,108 a month.
- 3% off the price (about $11,500) lowers that by about $63 a month.
- A quarter-point lower rate (7.07%) lowers it by about $52 a month.
In other words, an unusually good holiday deal and a modest move in mortgage rates are about the same size. Rates can move either way in a few weeks.
The Federal Reserve announces its next decision on Oct. 28, and Freddie Mac's next weekly survey comes out Oct. 29. Neither is known at the time of writing, and we don't forecast either.
A Michigan wrinkle: Dec. 31 versus January
Closing near the new year affects property taxes in a way that's specific to Michigan. Under Proposal A, a home's taxable value "uncaps" to its state equalized value in the calendar year after a sale (MCL 211.27a).
- A buyer who closes on Dec. 30, 2026 is uncapped for 2027.
- A buyer who closes on Jan. 4, 2027 keeps the seller's capped value for all of 2027 and is uncapped in 2028.
At the Oakland County average gap between taxable and assessed value, that one-year difference is roughly $2,000. It isn't a reason to delay a purchase that otherwise works. If the closing date is negotiable, though, it's worth knowing. Our guide to property-tax uncapping walks through the math.
What this means for you
If you're shopping now, this is the part of the year when Oakland County has had the most listings and the most price cuts. Listings that have been on the market since late summer, or have already been cut once, are where you're most likely to find room to negotiate. That can mean price, seller-paid closing costs or repairs. Under the Fannie Mae limits most conventional buyers fall under, seller contributions are capped at 3% to 9% of the price depending on the down payment. Your lender can confirm what applies to you.
If you're planning to wait for December, expect fewer homes to choose from and more homes that have been sitting a while. Those sellers may be more flexible. You may also find nothing that fits and end up shopping in spring, when new listings return and competition picks up.
If you're selling, the same data cut the other way. Buyers have the most leverage from fall into winter. A home listed in late November competes with fewer listings but also reaches fewer buyers. Pricing correctly from the first day matters more than usual.
The bottom line
The "mid-December" finding is accurate for Redfin's Detroit market, which is Wayne County. For Oakland County buyers, Redfin's own data, Realtor.com's study and the county's listing records all point earlier: late summer through October, which is now.
December can still produce a good deal on a home that's been sitting, especially for buyers with flexible timing. But it's a trade of selection for leverage, and the size of that seasonal discount is about the same as a small change in mortgage rates. The best time to buy is still when the right home, the right payment and your own plans line up.
Sources: Redfin and Home Economics (Oct. 27, 2026); Redfin buyers-vs-sellers report (Oct. 14, 2026); Realtor.com via RISMedia (Sept. 14, 2026); Realtor.com county listing data via FRED (through September 2026); Realcomp II Ltd. lead sheets (September 2022–2026, December 2022–2025); Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED; MCL 211.27a. Seasonal averages and payment estimates are BIG Real Estate calculations. This article is general information, not mortgage, tax or legal advice.